NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Weather Briefing for Red Flag
Warning August 21-22, 2012
***Red Flag Warning in Effect for Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles
County Mountains, Valleys, and Deserts Tonight Through Wednesday
Afternoon***
SYNOPSIS: A weak low pressure system will develop off the central
California coast Tuesday evening then move slowly across the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The atmosphere will become more unstable as
the low approaches but the moisture source will be very limited. This
scenario will bring a potential for dry lightning, or thunderstorms that
contain little or no rainfall, across much of southwest California from
about the San Luis Obispo County Mountains south and east across most of
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Fire weather concerns are high given
the very dry fuel conditions and recent above normal temperatures.
IMPACTS: Dry lightning could result in fire ignitions and gusty outflow
winds from collapsing thunderstorms would help spread fire rapidly. The
recent heat wave has primed dry vegetation across the entire region with
most areas reporting critical fuel moisture levels. Boaters should be
aware that thunderstorms could bring dangerous lightning, shifting winds,
and choppy seas.
TIMING: The main dry lightning threat will develop after midnight with
thunderstorms likely to form over the coastal waters then move inland
overnight and early Wednesday morning. Storm movement will generally be
from southwest to northeast. Thunderstorms will likely shift to the mountains
and deserts and away from the coast and valley areas by midday Wednesday,
continuing through Wednesday afternoon. All storm activity should wind
down by early Wednesday evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High confidence for dry lightning to develop across
the region tonight and Wednesday, but low confidence for the overall
amount of thunderstorm activity.
Updates and statements about this thunderstorm event can be accessed on
our web site at
www.weather.gov/losangeles
The latest Red Flag Warning can be accessed at
http://go.usa.gov/7dx
Attached is our current Weather Story graphic.
--
Eric Boldt
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard
www.weather.gov/losangeles
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